Novel risk stratification with time course assessment of in-hospital mortality in patients with acute heart failure

BACKGROUND Patients with acute heart failure (AHF) show various clinical courses during hospitalization. We aimed to identify time course predictors of in-hospital mortality and to establish a sequentially assessable risk model. METHODS AND RESULTS We enrolled 1,035 consecutive AHF patients into derivation (n = 597) and validation (n = 438) cohorts. For risk assessments at admission, we utilized Get With the Guidelines-Heart Failure (GWTG-HF) risk scores. We examined significant predictors of in-hospital mortality from 11 variables obtained during hospitalization and developed a risk stratification model using multiple logistic regression analysis. Across both cohorts, 86 patients (8.3%) died during hospitalization. Using backward stepwise selection, we identified five time-course predictors: catecholamine administration, minimum platelet concentration, maximum blood urea nitrogen, total bilirubin, and C-reactive protein levels; and established a time course risk score that could sequentially assess a patient's risk status. The addition of a time course risk score improved the discriminative ability of the GWTG-HF risk score (c-statistics in derivation and validation cohorts: 0.776 to 0.888 [p = 0.002] and 0.806 to 0.902 [p<0.001], respectively). A calibration plot revealed a good relationship between observed and predicted in-hospital mortalities in both cohorts (Hosmer-Lemeshow chi-square statistics: 6.049 [p = 0.642] and 5.993 [p = 0.648], respectively). In each group of initial low-intermediate risk (GWTG-HF risk score <47) and initial high risk (GWTG-HF risk score ≥47), in-hospital mortality was about 6- to 9-fold higher in the high time course risk score group than in the low-intermediate time course risk score group (initial low-intermediate risk group: 20.3% versus 2.2% [p<0.001], initial high risk group: 57.6% versus 8.5% [p<0.001]). CONCLUSIONS A time course assessment related to in-hospital mortality during the hospitalization of AHF patients can clearly categorize a patient's on-going status, and may assist patients and clinicians in deciding treatment options.